Key takeaways
- Amazon raised its take without touching commission. Total take reached 35.
- The peak has a fixed shape and it repeats. The week before Black Friday already runs at roughly 1.
- Your Black Friday return rate is a mirage. Black Friday week posts the lowest refund rate of the winter, at 1.
- A fee change most sellers never noticed. Between June and July 2025 Amazon replaced the flat coupon redemption fee with a performance fee plus a participation fee.
The numbers
Amazon's total take of seller sales reached 35.1% in the year to August 2026, up 31 basis points year on year, measured on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers. Total take stacks referral commission, fulfilment, storage, inbound placement and the other Amazon-charged lines against sales. Just over a third of every pound or dollar of sales leaves before cost of goods.
Source: Nova first-party panelReferral commission held at 13.8% of sales across both years to August 2026 on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, unchanged year on year. The entire increase in Amazon's take came from logistics, not from the headline commission rate. Watching the commission percentage alone would have shown a flat year.
Source: Nova first-party panelThe FBA inbound placement fee grew 11% year on year as a share of sales in the year to August 2026 on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers. It is the fastest-rising line in the fee ledger. How you split and route shipments into the network now has a measurable effect on unit economics.
Source: Nova first-party panelFBA storage costs sellers 1.36% of sales in February and 2.84% in November on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, measured over the twelve months to August 2026. An annual average understates Q4 storage by more than half. Budget storage by month, not as a single yearly percentage.
Source: Nova first-party panelPromotional discounting fell to 2.54% of sales in the year to August 2026 on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, down 14% year on year. Sellers competed less on price than the year before. Price cuts were not the lever used to defend volume.
Source: Nova first-party panelThe refund rate improved to 3.53% of units in the year to August 2026 on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers. Measured on units refunded against units sold. The annual figure hides a sharp seasonal swing, so read it alongside the January return wave.
Source: Nova first-party panelCyber Monday outsold Black Friday in both 2024 and 2025 on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, reaching 4.17 times a normal trading day against 4.02 in 2025. The gap widened in the second year. If you plan stock and ad budget around Black Friday alone, you are underweighting the bigger day.
Source: Nova first-party panelUnit volume falls about 60% within 24 hours of Cyber Monday on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, in both peak seasons measured. The drop is immediate, not gradual. Inventory that has not sold by Cyber Monday evening is Q1 inventory paying Q4 storage rates.
Source: Nova first-party panelThe week before Black Friday already runs at roughly 1.8 times a normal trading day on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, across both peak seasons measured. The peak is a ten-day event, not two days. Stock has to be receivable and live before the run-up starts, not on the Thursday.
Source: Nova first-party panelSellers discount less on the peak days, at 1.15% of sales on Black Friday against 1.55% to 1.80% during the run-up week, on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers. Demand does the work on the peak days. The heavier discounting sits in the run-up, where sellers are buying visibility rather than converting ready buyers.
Source: Nova first-party panelRefunds peak in the first week of January at 6.65% of units on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers, three and a half times the 1.85% recorded during Black Friday week itself, measured across the winter of 2025 into 2026. Returns do not settle until late February. Peak-season profit is not final until the wave has passed, so hold back cash accordingly.
Source: Nova first-party panelAligned on Black Friday, the 2024 and 2025 daily volume curves on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers never diverge by more than 0.2 index points across fourteen days. The shape of the peak repeats. That makes it plannable: last year's daily curve is a usable forecast for this year's.
Source: Nova first-party panelAmazon moved Prime Day from July 2025 to late June 2026 and peak-day volume on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers fell about 18%. Same sellers, same measurement, different calendar slot. Treat a Prime Day date change as a demand event, not just a diary change.
Source: Nova first-party panelAmazon sellers on a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers see four annual peaks, not one, across the two years to August 2026. Prime Day, Prime Big Deal Days in October, the Black Friday to Cyber Monday block, and the mid-December shipping deadline. Each needs its own inbound plan.
Source: Nova first-party panelBetween June and July 2025 Amazon replaced the flat coupon redemption fee with a performance fee plus a participation fee, visible in the fee ledger of a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers. Any coupon cost comparison spanning mid-2025 compares two different fee schedules. Split your before and after windows at the changeover rather than reading one trend line.
Source: Nova first-party panelWhat actually moved
Amazon raised its take without touching commission
Total take reached 35.1% of sales in the year to August 2026, up 31 basis points. The referral commission held at 13.8% across both years, so if you watched the headline rate you saw nothing change. The increase sits entirely in logistics: FBA fulfilment moved from 19.3% to 19.6% of sales, and the inbound placement fee grew 11% as a share of sales, the fastest-rising line in the ledger. That has a practical consequence for what you send into FBA right now. Shipment splitting, case pack sizing and which nodes you route to are no longer housekeeping, they are the part of the fee bill you can still influence. Cost of goods improved by 38 basis points to 24.3% of sales over the same period, which is real but smaller than what Amazon took back. If you want the same split on your own account, it is the profit and loss view that shows which fee line moved.
Three Amazon fee lines as a share of sales, month by month
Share of sales, percent. September 2025 to August 2026.
The peak has a fixed shape and it repeats
The week before Black Friday already runs at roughly 1.8 times a normal trading day, so the peak starts about ten days before most plans assume. Black Friday steps up to 4.02 times a normal day, Cyber Monday goes higher at 4.17, and then volume falls about 60% within 24 hours. The cliff is immediate, not a taper. What makes this usable is stability: aligned on Black Friday, the 2024 and 2025 daily curves never diverge by more than 0.2 index points across fourteen days. Last year's curve is a workable forecast for this year's. Get stock receivable and live before the run-up begins, and stop inbounding peak cover once Cyber Monday is inside your lead time, because anything arriving after it pays November storage at 2.84% of sales against 1.36% in February. Working backwards from days of cover is exactly what restock planning is for.
Daily unit volume around Black Friday, two seasons overlaid
Multiple of a normal trading day. November to December, 2024 and 2025 peak seasons.
The ten biggest Amazon trading days in two years
Multiple of a normal trading day. September 2024 to August 2026.
| # | Event | Date | Index vs a normal day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cyber Monday 2025 | 1 December 2025 | 4.17x |
| 2 | Black Friday 2025 | 28 November 2025 | 4.02x |
| 3 | Prime Day 2025 day one | 8 July 2025 | 3.62x |
| 4 | Cyber Monday 2024 | 2 December 2024 | 3.19x |
| 5 | Black Friday 2024 | 29 November 2024 | 3.11x |
| 6 | Prime Big Deal Days 2024 day one | 8 October 2024 | 3.10x |
| 7 | Prime Big Deal Days 2025 day one | 8 October 2025 | 2.99x |
| 8 | Prime Day 2026 day one | 23 June 2026 | 2.95x |
| 9 | Black Friday week opener 2025 | 20 November 2025 | 2.88x |
| 10 | Last shipping days 2025 | 14 December 2025 | 2.70x |
Your Black Friday return rate is a mirage
Black Friday week posts the lowest refund rate of the winter, at 1.85% of units. That number tempts sellers into declaring peak season profitable in early December. It is not, because the returns simply have not arrived yet. Refunds peak in the first week of January at 6.65% of units, three and a half times the Black Friday week figure, and they do not settle back down until late February. Across the full year the refund rate improved to 3.53% of units, so this is a timing effect rather than a quality problem. Treat November and December margin as provisional, hold back cash against the January wave, and do not reprice or reorder off a December read of profitability.
Weekly refund rate through the winter, 2025 into 2026
Refunded units as a share of units sold, percent. November 2025 to February 2026.
A fee change most sellers never noticed
Between June and July 2025 Amazon replaced the flat coupon redemption fee with a performance fee plus a participation fee. It was not a headline change and it does not show up as a line item most sellers look at, but it means any coupon cost comparison spanning mid-2025 is comparing two different fee schedules against each other. If your coupon economics look like they drifted last year, check the changeover date before you conclude your promotions got less efficient. Split the before and after windows at the migration rather than reading one trend line. Discounting overall fell to 2.54% of sales, down 14% year on year, and sellers discounted least on the peak days themselves, at 1.15% of sales on Black Friday against 1.55% to 1.80% during the run-up week. Read that next to what your ads cost on those days before you judge peak efficiency.
These figures may be republished with attribution to Nova first-party panel and a link to the methodology page.
Methodology
Every figure on this page is computed from a fixed panel of several hundred Amazon sellers whose Amazon accounts are connected to Nova. Membership of the panel is frozen for the period compared, so the same accounts appear in both years and growth reflects trading rather than accounts joining or leaving. Nova publishes ratios, shares, rates and index values only. No absolute revenue or spend is published, no individual seller, brand, ASIN or marketplace is identified, and no counts of any kind about the panel are published. Where a figure is restated, it carries a dated note.
Seller playbook
When does the January return wave actually land?
The first week of January, at 6.65% of units refunded, three and a half times the 1.85% recorded during Black Friday week. It does not settle back to normal until late February. Plan cash for a two-month tail rather than a single spike, and do not treat December profit as final until the wave has passed.
How much extra should I budget for Q4 storage?
Roughly double your off-season rate. FBA storage runs at 1.36% of sales in February and 2.84% in November, so an annual average understates the Q4 bill by more than half. Budget storage month by month, and price the storage cost of any peak cover that will not clear by Cyber Monday.
Should I plan for Black Friday or Cyber Monday as the bigger day?
Cyber Monday. It reached 4.17 times a normal trading day against 4.02 for Black Friday in 2025, and it outsold Black Friday in 2024 too, with the gap widening in the second year. Weight your ad budget and your remaining stock cover toward the Monday, and remember volume falls about 60% in the 24 hours after it.
Amazon's fees went up but the commission did not. Where did it go?
Into logistics. Referral commission held at 13.8% of sales across both years while total take rose to 35.1%. FBA fulfilment moved from 19.3% to 19.6% of sales and inbound placement grew 11% as a share of sales. Shipment splitting, pack configuration and inbound routing are where the increase is, and they are the parts you can still change.
Outlook: what to watch next
The next issue covers the run into peak. Three things are worth watching against this baseline: whether the inbound placement line keeps climbing at double digits, whether the 2026 peak curve holds the same shape as 2024 and 2025 once Prime Big Deal Days lands in October, and whether the improvement in cost of goods survives another year of fulfilment increases.
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