How do I plan Amazon FBA inventory for Q4?
Place your Q4 hero SKU POs by early July, second wave by late August, and a small third wave for post-Cyber Monday replenishment by mid-October. Amazon FC intake slows in November and early December, so units that miss check-in windows sit outside FBA during the peak.
The Q4 timeline
Early July: place primary Q4 POs based on last year x 1.15 growth adjusted for current run-rate. Late August: place second wave for late-October to Cyber Monday cover. Mid-October: place small emergency top-up for post-Cyber Monday and early January.
What to keep out of FBA
Sit deep buffers at AWD or 3PL, not FBA. Q4 storage and utilization surcharges will eat the margin gain you were hoping for. Replenish FBA from AWD in small, frequent waves.
Frequently asked questions
Is Prime Day a separate plan?
Yes. Prime Day POs need to be in FBA by late June to be safe.
Should I inflate safety stock for Q4?
Yes, moderately. A 20 to 30% pad on hero SKUs is normal; a 100% pad usually creates January dead stock.
Do I need extra COGS budget for Q4?
Yes. Plan on 3 to 4x normal monthly COGS outflow between July and October.
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What is the reorder point formula for Amazon FBA?
Reorder point = (average daily sales x lead time in days) + safety stock. Lead time includes production plus transit plus FBA check-in. Safety stock covers demand and lead-time variability. If any of those numbers is wrong, you either stock out or bury cash in overstock.
How do I calculate safety stock for Amazon FBA?
Safety stock = Z-score x demand standard deviation x sqrt(lead time in days). For a 95% service level, Z is about 1.65. Use daily sales variability over the last 90 days. Fewer than 30 days of history means guess higher because variability is under-measured.
How should I ramp Amazon PPC for Q4 and Prime Day?
Start 30 days before the event. Raise budgets on proven exact and SP category campaigns, warm up bids gradually to build search rank, then scale hard during the 48 hours before and through the event. Do not launch new keywords for the first time on event day; the CPC premium is brutal.
AWD vs FBA: when should I use each?
AWD (Amazon Warehousing & Distribution) is upstream bulk storage that transfers to FBA on demand. Use FBA for the 4 to 8 weeks of forward cover you actually need. Use AWD for the bulk pallet buffer behind it. AWD storage is meaningfully cheaper per cubic foot than FBA.
What are the best options to liquidate aged Amazon inventory?
Four options actually move the needle: Amazon Outlet promo, an aggressive coupon plus PPC push, FBA Liquidations, or removal to a liquidation broker (B-Stock, Direct Liquidation). Pick based on how much of the retail price you can recover minus fees.