How fast does Amazon expect Canada to grow?

Internal forecasts project Canadian package volume rising by more than 40% in total between 2026 and 2029, with annual growth outpacing the US. Amazon calls the forecasts preliminary and subject to change.

What happens on September 8, 2026?

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US imports begin, covering consumer categories including appliances and electronics. That is the date that matters for anyone moving US-origin goods north.

Does this affect Remote Fulfillment sellers?

It can. Remote Fulfillment lets sellers list on Amazon.ca while inventory sits in US warehouses, so units cross the border after a Canadian order is placed. Any duty applied at that crossing lands on the individual order, not on a bulk shipment.

Has Amazon raised prices in Canada?

Amazon told Business Insider that prices in its Canadian store have not increased outside normal fluctuation so far. That is Amazon's own retail pricing and says nothing about what a third-party seller's landed cost is doing.

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Amazon shifts some Canadian sourcing to China to avoid tariffs

Q: What did Amazon change about its Canadian sourcing?

A March planning document reviewed by Business Insider says Amazon changed some of its Canadian direct-import sourcing from the US to China to avoid tariffs. That covers Amazon's own retail imports, not third-party seller inventory.

Max

August 27, 2026

5 min

Summarize with AI

COO at Nova Analytics

Max leads operations at Nova Analytics, helping Amazon sellers optimize their business performance through data-driven insights and strategic automation.

Quick Summary

•A March Amazon planning document says it moved some Canadian direct-import sourcing from the US to China to avoid tariffs
•Amazon still forecasts Canadian package volume growing more than 40% in total between 2026 and 2029
•An extra 50% US tariff on certain Canadian imports took effect this month, including on some USMCA-covered goods
•Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US imports begin September 8 and cover appliances and electronics
•Action: isolate Canada in the P&L, list US-origin SKUs sold on Amazon.ca, and re-check Remote Fulfillment economics per unit

Nova surfaces every Amazon fee, refund, and margin shift in your live P&L, across 23 marketplaces. Open the live P&L

Amazon is planning for Canada to grow faster than the US over the next three years. It is also, quietly, changing where it buys the goods it sends there. Both facts come from internal documents, and both matter to anyone selling US-origin inventory into Amazon.ca.

What happened

Internal Amazon planning documents show the company expects Canadian package volume to rise by more than 40% in total between 2026 and 2029, with annual growth consistently ahead of the US, and it is funding that with more fulfilment capacity, same-day delivery and logistics build-out. A March document also says Amazon changed some Canadian direct-import sourcing from the US to China "to avoid tariffs" (Business Insider, August 26, 2026).

The context has since got harder. An additional 50% US tariff on certain Canadian imports was announced on July 20 and took effect this month, including on some goods that had been protected under USMCA. Canada's counter-tariffs on US imports start September 8 and reach consumer categories such as appliances and electronics (The Next Web, August 26, 2026).

Amazon told Business Insider it has invested more than C$65 billion in Canada since 2010, employs over 46,000 people there, and has not seen Canadian store prices move outside normal fluctuation so far.

Why it matters

A sourcing change is the clearest signal a retailer can send about landed cost. Amazon did not renegotiate with US suppliers or absorb the duty. It changed origin. Third-party sellers do not usually have that option on short notice, which is exactly why the tariff and duty line needs to be visible per marketplace rather than folded into a single blended COGS figure.

The September 8 date is the one to diary. Remote Fulfillment sellers are the most exposed, because that programme keeps inventory in US warehouses and moves units across the border after a Canadian customer orders. Duty applied at that point attaches to the individual order, so the cost shows up unevenly across the catalogue instead of arriving as one predictable inbound charge.

What to check before September 8

Isolate Canada in your P&L. Not a share of a North America total. Its own marketplace view, with its own fee and duty lines.
List every SKU shipping US-origin into Canada. Cross-reference against the retaliation categories, starting with appliances and electronics.
Recheck Remote Fulfillment economics per unit. The convenience of not holding Canadian stock is priced differently once duty lands per order.
Decide the price move now, not on September 9. Work out which SKUs can carry the duty, which need a price change, and which should come off Amazon.ca entirely.
Watch delivery speed, not just cost. Amazon says competitors reach 70% to 85% of Canadian households in two to four hours against its own same-day coverage of about 54.5% of Prime members. Buy Box behaviour follows delivery promise.

The Nova angle

Nova reconciles settlement data down to the unit across 23 marketplaces, so Canada reads as its own P&L rather than a rounding difference inside a North America average. See Nova Profit & Loss and custom breakdowns.

Verified Sources

All information verified from official Amazon sources and trusted industry analysts as of publication date.

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Amazon shifts some Canadian sourcing to China to avoid tariffs

Quick Summary

What happened

Why it matters

What to check before September 8

The Nova angle

Verified Sources

Deep Dive: Related Guides

Ask Claude about your Amazon data

Ask Claude about your Amazon data

What happened

Why it matters

What to check before September 8

The Nova angle

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Amazon change about its Canadian sourcing?

How fast does Amazon expect Canada to grow?

What happens on September 8, 2026?

Does this affect Remote Fulfillment sellers?

Has Amazon raised prices in Canada?

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Amazon change about its Canadian sourcing?

How fast does Amazon expect Canada to grow?

What happens on September 8, 2026?

Does this affect Remote Fulfillment sellers?

Has Amazon raised prices in Canada?