Can an AI agent forecast my Amazon inventory and alert me before I stock out?
Yes. An AI agent can forecast when each Amazon product runs out and alert you in time if it reads your stock, inbound shipments, sales velocity, lead times and last year's sales, and Nova's MCP connector gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants that access to your Seller Central account. Through Nova, the assistant dates each product's run-out, adjusts it for the season, compares it with the time an order takes to arrive, and alerts you only about the products that need an order now.
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The playbook
Every step calls a Nova tool that reads your live Amazon data, so paste this into Claude, ChatGPT or any assistant connected to Nova's MCP server. Run it every morning, as a scheduled task if your assistant supports them.
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Use Nova to forecast when each of my Amazon products runs out, and alert me only about the ones I must act on before then. Scope: my Seller Central accounts and every stock region. If I name products or regions, keep to those. 1. Find the products at risk. Call Nova's query_inventory with groupBy "asin", includeReorder true, daysUntilReorderMax 14, sorted by daysUntilReorder ascending, limit 50. Then call it again with oosRiskFlag true. Keep the products from both calls, and give stock region, sellable units, inbound units, sales velocity, days of supply after inbound, external stock, units on order and the next expected date. 2. Check the lead times. Each row gives its lead times and targets with a source. If a source says fleet_default, say the forecast uses Nova's default lead times. If recoStatus is params_missing, say so and ask me for the lead times. 3. Read the season. Call Nova's query_metrics with groupBy "childAsin", timeGrain "week", limit 50, and units, for those products over the last 8 complete weeks, then over the same 8 weeks last year and the 8 weeks that followed them. A week at or near zero is a stockout, so leave it out of every average. 4. Adjust the velocity. For each product, divide last year's units in the coming 8 weeks by last year's units in the 8 weeks before them. Multiply today's velocity by that ratio. If last year has too few sales or holds a stockout, keep today's velocity and say so. 5. Add subscriber demand. From step 1, read snsForecastUnits30d. These are Amazon's projected Subscribe and Save deliveries, so say when they are a large share of the coming month. 6. Forecast the run-out date. For each product, divide sellable plus inbound units by the adjusted daily velocity and add the result to today. Compare it with today plus the total lead time from step 2. 7. Set the alert level. Stockout ahead: the run-out date falls before an order placed today could arrive. Order this week: daysUntilReorder is 7 or less. Watch: everything else from step 1. Do not alert on a product whose listing cannot sell: call Nova's query_listing_health for the Stockout ahead products and set those aside with the listing issue. 8. Alert. If nothing is at Stockout ahead or Order this week, reply in one line that there is no stockout alert today. Otherwise give one short table per level: product, region, run-out date, days left, lead time, units on order and recommendedOrderQty. Keep it short enough to read in a chat or an email. Rules: the forecast is an estimate from velocity and last year's pattern, so say which products rest on little history. Never add the non-Pool quantities across SKUs. Relay every notice Nova returns. You cannot place orders or create shipments.
How Nova customers use this
Real requests from Nova customers, names removed.
“Daily stockout alert: every SKU out of stock or with seven days of cover or less, across all the accounts we manage.”
What the assistant did
A recurring daily run: it read the stock of every managed account and listed the SKUs already out of stock or within seven days of running out.
Nova tools used (1)
query_inventory
“Build a November and December forecast per marketplace from the October run rate and last year's seasonal lift.”
What the assistant did
It read 13 months of units and orders per marketplace, took the October run rate, and applied last year's lift into November and December.
Nova tools used (1)
query_metrics
“Check whether last year's peak weeks hid a stockout, so we do not understate this year's demand.”
What the assistant did
It read last year's weekly units for the product through the peak and looked for weeks that dropped toward zero, which mark a stockout rather than low demand.
Nova tools used (1)
query_metrics
“Spread next year's forecast by SKU using last year's real weekly pattern.”
What the assistant did
It read weekly units per SKU since the start of last year to give each SKU its own weekly shape for the forecast.
Nova tools used (1)
query_metrics
What does the forecast use?
Sellable and inbound units
Where it comes from
Amazon's FBA inventory, per stock region
Sales velocity
Where it comes from
Units per day over the last 30 days
Season
Where it comes from
The same weeks last year, with stockout weeks left out
Subscriber deliveries
Where it comes from
Amazon's Subscribe and Save forecast for the next 30 days
Lead times and targets
Where it comes from
The ones you entered in Nova, or Nova's defaults when you have not
Warehouse stock and supplier orders
Where it comes from
What you entered or imported in Nova
The alert tells you when to act. To size the order itself, use the reorder playbook. For one morning message that also covers sales, ads and listings, use the daily brief.
How do I get the alert every morning?
Save the playbook as a scheduled task in your assistant if it offers them, or run it from an automation tool: the n8n guide shows how to call Nova from a workflow and send the result to email or chat. Step 8 keeps the message to one line on quiet days.
How to read the result
Stockout ahead, nothing on order
What it usually means
An order placed today arrives after the shelf is empty
What to do
Order now, and plan a faster route for part of it
Stockout ahead, units on order
What it usually means
The order arrives after the run-out date
What to do
Ask your supplier to bring part of it forward
Run-out date moves earlier than last week
What it usually means
The season or a promotion lifted sales
What to do
Read the adjusted velocity before you size the order
Season ratio well above 1
What it usually means
Last year sold more in the coming weeks
What to do
Size the order on the adjusted velocity
Uses Nova's default lead times
What it usually means
Your own lead times are not entered
What to do
Enter them, because the alert depends on them
Set aside for a listing issue
What it usually means
The listing blocks the sale
What to do
Fix the listing first
Limits
- Velocity is the last 30 days. The season adjustment is the assistant's estimate from last year's sales.
- Subscribe and Save forecasts come from Amazon and cover subscriber deliveries only.
- Stock is the state today. Inbound counts shipped and receiving units unless you include Working plans.
- A product with less than a year of sales has no season to read.
- Seller Central stock only. For Vendor Central, Amazon's stock and forecast come from the Vendor Central playbooks.
- The assistant alerts and recommends. It does not place supplier orders or create shipments.
Questions sellers ask
Does Nova forecast demand by itself?
Nova gives days of supply from the last 30 days of sales, after inbound, and Amazon's Subscribe and Save forecast. The season adjustment in this playbook is the assistant's estimate from your sales last year.
Does it count my warehouse or 3PL stock?
Yes, when you have entered or imported it in Nova. The reorder block then gives your external stock, your open supplier orders and the days of cover once they are shipped in.
Can it place the order for me?
No. The assistant alerts you and recommends a quantity. You place supplier orders and create shipments yourself.