Are ChatGPT ads worth it for ecommerce?

This working paper says not yet on tracked revenue: paid ChatGPT visits earned $0.89 in US traffic against $2.45 for paid Google search, and 73 of 87 advertisers buying both saw no ChatGPT ad sale. It uses last-click data, so run your own test before deciding.

How much is a ChatGPT ad click worth?

The authors estimate about $0.26 at paid search's rate of return, with a range of $0.05 to $0.57 because one advertiser made most of the revenue. The largest public account the paper found paid about $1.72 per click over 15 days.

How do I calculate a break-even price for ChatGPT clicks?

Work out what share of your paid search revenue per visit a ChatGPT ad visit brings in, then apply that share to your search cost per click. The result leaves out margins and any later purchases that last-click data misses.

Did ads reduce organic traffic from ChatGPT?

The authors estimate organic referrals fell about 6% to 8% over the first 13 weeks after launch, relative to organic search and to the EU. Visitors who still arrived converted at the same rate.

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ChatGPT ads earn $0.89 a visit vs $2.45 on Google: study

A new working paper puts paid ChatGPT visits at about a third of the revenue of paid Google search, and most advertisers in it saw no sales. What Amazon brands should do.

MaxCOO at Nova Analytics

Nov 3, 2026 · 2 min read · 520 words

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In US traffic, online shops earned $0.89 from a visit that came through a paid ChatGPT ad and $2.45 from one that came through a paid Google search ad. That is the headline of a working paper by Maximilian Kaiser and Christian Schulze, which uses shops' own sales data. It was widely covered on November 2, 2026.

What did the study find?

Paid ChatGPT against paid Google search, US traffic
Metric	Paid ChatGPT	Paid Google search
Revenue per visit	$0.89	$2.45
Conversion rate	0.37%	1.17%

Results were very uneven. Search Engine Journal reports that of 87 advertisers buying both channels in US traffic, 84 earned less per ChatGPT visit, and 73 recorded no ChatGPT ad sale at all. One advertiser made 76% of US paid ChatGPT revenue.

Organic ChatGPT referrals to shops also fell by an estimated 6% to 8% after ads launched, while the visitors who still came converted as before.

What is a ChatGPT ad click worth?

The authors put it at about $0.26, the price at which a ChatGPT click would match paid search on tracked revenue per dollar. The arithmetic: $0.89 divided by $2.45, multiplied by a $0.72 median search click across 16 accounts. The largest public account the paper found paid about $1.72 per click over 15 days.

You can run the same sum on your own account. As an illustration, a brand earning $1.00 per ChatGPT visit and $4.00 per search visit, at a $1.20 search click, reaches parity at $0.30 ($1.00 / $4.00 x $1.20). It leaves out margins and later purchases.

How solid is the evidence?

It is a first version under review, not a peer-reviewed paper
The paid comparison rests on 102 advertisers, who chose to buy these ads, so the figures describe those shops and do not prove what the ads caused
The unadjusted 5.9% drop in organic referrals has an interval of -12.6% to +1.2%; 6% to 8% is a range across assumptions
The data is last click, so it misses shoppers who see an ad and buy later
The data came free from Grips Intelligence, and Kaiser advises the company; the paper says Grips had no role in the research
OpenAI has cited an ecommerce advertiser with three times return on ad spend over 28 days, on a different measure

What should Amazon brands do?

Our read: treat ChatGPT ads as a test budget through the holidays, not a replacement for search. For most Amazon brands, Q4 money still works harder on Amazon itself.

If you test, read it against your break-even ACOS per product, not blended revenue
Filter out ad review crawlers before you compare sessions, as OpenAI's documentation warns they can be counted as paid
Keep working on organic visibility: referrals held their conversion rate, and our earlier note on ChatGPT product feeds covers the setup

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about this topic

This working paper says not yet on tracked revenue: paid ChatGPT visits earned $0.89 in US traffic against $2.45 for paid Google search, and 73 of 87 advertisers buying both saw no ChatGPT ad sale. It uses last-click data, so run your own test before deciding.
The authors estimate about $0.26 at paid search's rate of return, with a range of $0.05 to $0.57 because one advertiser made most of the revenue. The largest public account the paper found paid about $1.72 per click over 15 days.
Work out what share of your paid search revenue per visit a ChatGPT ad visit brings in, then apply that share to your search cost per click. The result leaves out margins and any later purchases that last-click data misses.
The authors estimate organic referrals fell about 6% to 8% over the first 13 weeks after launch, relative to organic search and to the EU. Visitors who still arrived converted at the same rate.

Verified Sources

All information verified from official Amazon sources and trusted industry analysts as of publication date.

About the Author

Max

COO at Nova Analytics

Max leads operations at Nova Analytics, helping Amazon sellers optimize their business performance through data-driven insights and strategic automation.

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What did the study find?

What is a ChatGPT ad click worth?

How solid is the evidence?

What should Amazon brands do?

Frequently Asked Questions

Are ChatGPT ads worth it for ecommerce?

How much is a ChatGPT ad click worth?

How do I calculate a break-even price for ChatGPT clicks?

Did ads reduce organic traffic from ChatGPT?

Verified Sources

Max

Related guides

See your Amazon business clearly.

What did the study find?

What is a ChatGPT ad click worth?

How solid is the evidence?

What should Amazon brands do?